Convective Outlook: Tue 07 Feb 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Feb 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Feb 2017

ISSUED 21:18 UTC Mon 06 Feb 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough approaching from the Atlantic will disrupt on Tuesday as the upper patten bifurcates, with the Scandinavian block building more strongly. The associated cold pool with this upper trough will split, one portion sliding northwards to the W of Scotland, but the more notable cold pool drifting southwards to the western Mediterranean by Wednesday morning.


This cold pool, atop SSTs and daytime temperatures inland, will generate a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE with scattered showers expected to develop, some weakly electrified. Given cold air aloft and steep lapse rates, the most intense showers will be capable of producing quite a bit of small hail. The exact forecast evolution is complicated somewhat by a post-cold front occlusion which may provide an area of cloud and showery precipitation over SW Britain, the detail of which varies from run-to-run amongst NWP - this might inhibit convection to a certain extent. Nonetheless, a broad LOW threat level has been issued, not quite high enough to warrant a SLGT, with the best potential likely to be over Wales and SW England.