Convective Outlook: Mon 27 Feb 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Feb 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Feb 2017

ISSUED 18:34 UTC Sun 26 Feb 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper vortex will slide E-wards across the British Isles on Monday, its associated cold mid/upper-levels atop SSTs and diurnally-heated land producing steep lapse rates and generating widespread convection. A frontal wave will be clearing SE England first thing in the morning, followed by a showery trough/quasi-cold front moving east across Midlands/CS England into E Anglia/SE England late morning/early afternoon.


As this secondary feature engages with the departing forcing aloft, at least for a time, there is the potential for better organisation into a broke line of convective clusters capable of producing some notably gusty winds - more especially close to the south coast. Lightning potential in this line is considered relatively low, and much more likely in the post-frontal airmass which will be present across the rest of the British Isles at this time, eventually extending into E Anglia / SE England through the afternoon.

In this airmass, numerous showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms are expected, giving snow to quite low levels, especially where heavy showers occur locally, with numerous hail showers also likely. The risk of lightning is generally greatest across England and Wales, especially considering better DLS towards the east, but still falls short of upgrading to SLGT at this early stage in the season.