Convective Outlook: Sun 19 Mar 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 19 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 20 Mar 2017

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Sat 18 Mar 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

In the post-frontal environment, steepening lapse rates will yield an environment favourable for numerous showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms across the far north of Scotland and (more likely) over Orkney and Shetland - especially late afternoon into the evening hours. 40-50kts DLS and strong steering motion will mean any one individual shower will pass through quickly, but could produce some localised gusts of 60-70mph and perhaps some small hail. Showers are also likely in W Scotland / Hebrides, but convective depth will be generally more limited farther south.


Later in the night, a cold air feature (showery occlusion which several NWP solutions develop into a discrete closed surface low, with several other solutions keeping it instead as a much more open feature) will approach W/SW Scotland, with showery precipitation extending northwards and eastwards into Monday morning. Instability looks quite marginal, but given potential for notable forcing with this feature there is the potential for some isolated lightning activity - hence the extension of the LOW to cover much of mainland Scotland.