| Convective Outlook: Wed 22 Mar 2017 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 Mar 2017
ISSUED 20:43 UTC Tue 21 Mar 2017
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Sharpening upper trough will disrupt over the British Isles on Wednesday, sliding to Biscay as a cut-off upper vortex by Thursday. The nature of this disruption carries a lot of uncertainty, and this is exhibited in the run-to-run and model-to-model differences in the position and activity of various frontal features.
Nonetheless, there is reasonable agreement that behind the slow-moving cold front, sufficient insolation will generate enough instability, given cold mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates, to allow a few scattered showers and weakly-electrified thunderstorms to develop - these perhaps most likely over the W Country / Midlands / CS England / Home Counties. Some small hail will be possible with this activity, which will tend to diminish through the evening hours as daytime heating subsides. Given the uncertainties in exact positioning / timing, no SLGT has been issued at this time.
Later in the night, deep convection will tend to develop more widely across the western half of the English Channel, with numerous showers and perhaps a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms brushing close to the coast of south Devon / Cornwall during the early hours of Thursday.




