Convective Outlook: Wed 29 Mar 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Mar 2017

ISSUED 19:50 UTC Wed 29 Mar 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan


UPDATE 19:50 UTC LOW extended NE-wards to cater for medium level instability release overnight - chance of lightning in any one location considered very low

... IRELAND / NORTHERN IRELAND ...
On the forward side of an upper trough, strong deep layer shear overlapping some marginal instability (in the post-frontal environment) may be sufficient to allow a few scattered showers / weak thunderstorms to develop during Wednesday afternoon. Relatively low LCLs and backed/curved low-level hodographs gives the potential for a brief tornado, albeit low-level flow is quite slack.

... S WALES / SW ENGLAND ...
A low risk of some embedded elevated convection on the forward side of the frontal boundary within a higher WBPT plume during Wednesday evening and night.