Convective Outlook: Fri 31 Mar 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 31 Mar 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 01 Apr 2017

ISSUED 18:42 UTC Thu 30 Mar 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough approaching from the Atlantic on Friday will serve to steepen lapse rates as cool air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs (and diurnally-heated land). The net result is a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE, with bands of showery precipitation, perhaps isolated thunderstorms, moving N-wards and E-wards across Ireland into western Britain. Some small hail will be possible in the most intense cells.


Better instability will be found over portions of Ireland, but with the proviso that excessive cloudiness may inhibit convective depth somewhat - hence for now have refrained from upgrading to SLGT. A few heavy showers are possible in E England during Friday afternoon, but convective depth looking marginal for lightning. Also, French exports may get close to SE England during the first half of Friday morning and again late afternoon / early evening.