Convective Outlook: Sat 01 Apr 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 01 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 02 Apr 2017

ISSUED 19:25 UTC Fri 31 Mar 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

A sharp but weakening upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, its associated cold mid/upper levels helping to steepen lapse rates and generate several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE in response to diurnal heating. The forecast evolution is complicated somewhat by occlusion debris that may be affecting parts of western Scotland and northern England, bringing the risk of some persistent rain in places but more importantly extensive cloud.


Nonetheless, a typical day of April airmass convection is anticipated, with numerous showers developing during the day. Instability is sufficient for a few thunderstorms, although a lack of any significant shear will result in pulse-type modes with relatively short lifespans per individual thunderstorm. As a result, it is hard to justify upgrading any particular area to a SLGT at this stage - although current thinking would favour a zone from Devon across southern counties of England/south Midlands to southern portions of East Anglia (including London) as the area most favoured for lightning activity. Hence a low-end SLGT has been added to highlight this zone better.

Some small hail is likely in the most intense cells, and given slack flow there will be scope for a weak funnel cloud / tornado etc, especially near convergence zones. Some cause for concern in eastern Scotland given low-level convergence / slack flow, which may result in prolonged heavy showers bringing the risk of some localised flooding.