Convective Outlook: Sun 09 Apr 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Apr 2017

ISSUED 22:07 UTC Sat 08 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Approaching upper trough and strong surface heating will help to generate notable CAPE across the East Midlands/The Wash environs during Sunday afternoon. However, forecast profiles look quite dry with a capping inversion at 850mb, which is likely to be hard to overcome. Some high-res NWP, especially earlier on Saturday, were keen to develop one or two isolated thunderstorms over Lincolnshire in particular on Sunday afternoon/early evening, before drifting offshore over the North Sea - however, recent trends continue to decrease this potential. A very marginal LOW threat level has been issued (i.e. near 5-10% chance), if nothing else to highlight the area of interest. Should an isolated cell manage to develop, it would be capable of producing some small hail - though in reality it will likely struggle to grow to sufficient depth given very dry air aloft.


Some post-frontal deep convection is expected over northern Scotland / Northern Isles later on Sunday into Sunday night, but probably lacking in sufficient depth for any notable lightning activity.