However, ahead of the cold front, hints of surface troughing will likely help the development of some low-level convergence on Monday afternoon / early evening, sufficient to generate a few moderately-heavy showers over S/SE England. Overall convective depth is likely to be too shallow for lightning activity, but have issued a low-end LOW threat level to highlight the area with some very marginal potential for isolated lightning activity.

Farther north, more significant instability will develop through the evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated cold airmass drives southwards. During the night hours, the most intense convection will be found over seas and hence affecting windward coasts, and here the lightning potential will be greatest (albeit still considered a LOW threat level in any given location). Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with some of these wintry showers (along with the associated risk of snow accumulations, especially on high ground). A few cold air funnels (or brief tornado/waterspout) will also be possible.