Convective Outlook: Mon 01 May 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 May 2017

ISSUED 09:45 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 09:45 UTC SLGT extended slightly farther E to cater for slight eastward drift in low centre in latest NWP guidance

Cut-off upper low will reside over northern France / southern England on Monday, with a surface low lingering over England and Wales. A messy and rather complicated picture is expected, with a cold front and wrap-around occlusion provide the focus for some outbreaks of rain, rotating around the main low centre.

Behind the cold front, which will tend to straddle northern England, sufficient insolation will be capable of producing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly where low-level wind convergence provides some forcing accompanied by the best overlap of instability and shear during peak heating (particularly SE Wales/W Country - S Midlands - CS England). A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight this area, albeit instability is not overly-impressive. 
Some small hail may be possible with the strongest cells, along with the chance of a few funnels or weak tornadoes - especially close to the surface low centre. Slow storm-motion may cause some temporary localised surface water issues.