Convective Outlook: Mon 01 May 2017 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
Cut-off upper low will reside over northern France / southern England on Monday, with a surface low lingering over England and Wales. A messy and rather complicated picture is expected, with a cold front and wrap-around occlusion provide the focus for some outbreaks of rain, rotating around the main low centre.
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 May 2017
ISSUED 09:45 UTC Mon 01 May 2017
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
UPDATE 09:45 UTC SLGT extended slightly farther E to cater for slight eastward drift in low centre in latest NWP guidance
Behind the cold front, which will tend to straddle northern England, sufficient insolation will be capable of producing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly where low-level wind convergence provides some forcing accompanied by the best overlap of instability and shear during peak heating (particularly SE Wales/W Country - S Midlands - CS England). A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight this area, albeit instability is not overly-impressive.
Some small hail may be possible with the strongest cells, along with the chance of a few funnels or weak tornadoes - especially close to the surface low centre. Slow storm-motion may cause some temporary localised surface water issues.