Convective Outlook: Thu 18 May 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 18 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED 04:03 UTC Thu 18 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

The axis of a steep upper trough will drift eastwards across Ireland during the day and with the associated cold pool will allow for surface to 500mb lapse rates in excess of 40C. This combined with CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg will lead to plenty of convection. Showers will become heavy and a few thundery, although widespread lightning is not expected. (Ireland is favoured over western Britain for potential of lightning today).