Convective Outlook: Sat 20 May 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 May 2017

ISSUED 18:01 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

Upper trough axis will spread eastwards out of Britain during the morning, although an unstable airmass will remain across many areas into the afternoon. This in combination with an eastward progressing occluded front could help to trigger widespread scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The timing of the trough axis clearing before max heating will reduce the risk of lightning into the afternoon across central and eastern Britain, despite there being some sharper convection. Pinpointing which showers may produce a few lightning strikes will be difficult, thus such a large low end risk. An update will be issued if model trends are able to highlight more detail Saturday morning.