Convective Outlook: Mon 29 May 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 29 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 30 May 2017

ISSUED 09:21 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Early elevated convection having now cleared, residual high dewpoint air remains at the surface (Td 14-17C) in a rather slack regime, which provided there is sufficient insolation will generate 600-900 Jkg^-1 CAPE with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially Monday afternoon and early evening. Some small hail will be possible with the strongest cores, and given backed surface winds an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out - especially farther east where the surface vectors are most backed, enhanced by low-level convergence.