Convective Outlook: Tue 30 May 2017

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 31 May 2017

ISSUED 21:20 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Disrupting upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Tuesday, with a weakening occlusion/cold front at the surface drifting SE-wards. There may be sufficient forcing, given residual moisture near the surface, for some convection to develop along and/or ahead of this front, although large cloud amounts may limit this potential and in either case the true convective depth will likely be too marginal for lightning. As a result, very little lightning is expected, with perhaps more favourable conditions found in E/NE Scotland where a funnel or weak tornado may also be possible.