Convective Outlook: Mon 05 Jun 2017 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 05 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 06 Jun 2017
ISSUED 04:05 UTC Mon 05 Jun 2017
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Sharpening upper trough will pivot slowly NE-wards across the British Isles on Monday - at the surface, a complex frontal structure with a multi-centred area of low pressure will gradually push erratically northwards and eastwards.
The broad themes are...
- some embedded isolated lightning may be possible over Wales/SW England later in the afternoon, perhaps extending to S England in the evening hours.
- slack pressure pattern with areas of low-level convergence will bring the opportunity for scattered showers over Scotland and Ireland/Northern Ireland, with perhaps enough instability for some sporadic / isolated lightning. Here, a few funnel clouds or weak tornadoes are possible.
- steepening lapse rates overnight as CAA takes place to the rear of the upper trough will increase the potential for lightning in showers over western Ireland.