Convective Outlook: Fri 07 Jul 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 07 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 08 Jul 2017

ISSUED 03:49 UTC Fri 07 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... E & SE SCOTLAND / NE ENGLAND ...

Split cold front effectively leaves a SMZ (shallow moist zone) with dry layers above - these acting somewhat as a cap to any convection, but it is plausible a few heavy showers could develop late Friday morning into the first half of the afternoon with a marginal risk of lightning, given some slightly favourable mid-level lapse rates.

... MIDLANDS / EAST ANGLIA ...
Similar to farther north, moist low-levels with dewpoints 13-15C beneath much drier layers aloft may allow a few scattered heavy showers to develop late afternoon into the evening hours - though given more capping and fairly unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, overall risk of lightning is considered quite low.