Convective Outlook: Mon 10 Jul 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Jul 2017

ISSUED 19:31 UTC Sun 09 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough continues to migrate eastwards on Monday, its axis over eastern Britain early afternoon, then shifting east to the North Sea by evening. At the surface, residual warm, moist air will exist across East Anglia and SE England, with some elements of showery precipitation likely ongoing / expanding at the beginning of this forecast period as the approaching upper trough continues to destabilise the mid-levels initially. 


Provided there is some insolation, scattered showers are likely to develop quite quickly during the morning, with a few thunderstorms possible too - particularly in eastern parts where elements of low-level convergence will aid forcing (such as along and east of the A12 for example). Forecast profiles are fairly moist with skinny CAPE, so lightning may be sporadic at times but large rain accumulations may occur locally giving the risk of local flashing flooding. Low cloud bases and low-level convergence could allow a few funnels / weak tornadoes to occur.

Elsewhere, showers are expected but with drier layers aloft acting as a cap and limiting convective depth somewhat - and so lightning is considered less likely.