Convective Outlook: Tue 01 Aug 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 01 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED 23:45 UTC Mon 31 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

With the upper trough axis pivoting eastwards on Tuesday, deep instability will become more widespread compared with Monday, shifting from west to east through the day. Various shortwaves combined with low-level wind convergence will provide the focus for bands of showers / thunderstorms to run generally E or NE-wards, capable of gusty winds and hail to 2.0cm in diameter. Slow storm motion in northern Scotland increases the risk of some localised surface water flooding - another day here of funnel clouds / tornado / waterspout potential too.


Ridging approaching from the west will suppress convection in western areas during the afternoon, with the main focus then shifting to the North Sea through the evening - here there could be quite a bit of lightning activity on Tuesday night.