| Convective Outlook: Wed 02 Aug 2017 |
|
What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 Aug 2017
ISSUED 07:36 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
... CHANNEL ISLANDS / SE ENGLAND / EAST ANGLIA ...
Plume of high WBPT drawn northwards within the warm sector may undergo some destabilisation during the late afternoon and evening hours as stronger forcing arrives - scope then for some isolated embedded lightning given very marginal instability. In reality, very little lightning may occur.
... SCOTLAND / NORTHERN ENGLAND / WALES / NORTHERN IRELAND / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND ...
Overnight the arrival of an upper vortex, positioned near SW Scotland by 6z Thursday, will result in steeper lapse rates as cool air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs. Showers will become increasingly widespread from the west during the course of the night, some perhaps weakly electrified. Strong DLS and LLS combined with the passage of a shortwave trough may allow cells to become fairly well-organised, producing gusty winds and perhaps an isolated tornado - most likely from the Republic of Ireland eastwards across the Irish Sea to west Wales, though naturally the probability of this occurring in any one location is incredibly low. Some small hail may also be possible.




