Convective Outlook: Thu 03 Aug 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Aug 2017

ISSUED 22:35 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate northeastwards through Thursday, primarily affecting northern Britain. Its associated cool mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will lead to a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE. In general, upper trough passage is a little too fast / out of sync with peak daytime heating, and therefore deep convection will probably wane late afternoon into the evening, rather than persisting until mid evening.


Nonetheless, scattered showers will develop, rather slow-moving across Scotland under the centre of the low and here low-level wind convergence will aid in development. Greatest potential for lightning will be Aberdeenshire down to Fife, possibly also into the eastern Borders, though in any case this considered a low-end SLGT for now. A few weak funnel clouds or brief tornado will be possible across Scotland, while slow storm motion poses a threat for localised surface water issues.