Convective Outlook: Wed 23 Aug 2017 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Aug 2017
ISSUED 19:23 UTC Tue 22 Aug 2017
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will continue to destabilise the Theta-E plume on Wednesday as a cold front moves gradually eastwards across the British Isles. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period, embedded within general areas of rain across Scotland (rapidly weakening through the morning) while more scattered farther south towards the Midlands. Most models are in reasonable agreement for a cluster or line of (primarily elevated) thunderstorms along the Theta-E ridge to drift eastwards across northern England during the morning hours, exiting to the North Sea by early afternoon - though perhaps lingering over or close to Aberdeenshire into the afternoon. Forcing reduces farther south, and so thunderstorm potential becomes much lower - but an isolated thunderstorm could not be ruled out as far south as London, though in reality most activity will be generally north of The Wash. Main risk will be localised flooding from torrential downpours.