A lot of uncertainty surrounds developments here throughout Tuesday, tied-in primarily to the potential for elevated shower / thunderstorm activity along the steep Theta-E gradient. Models are handling the exact location/orientation of this Theta-E gradient slightly differently, along with subtle forcing features which ultimately has a knock-on effect as to when and if destabilisation occurs, and whether it is over UK land or offshore.

Some activity may be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period over SE England, which could extend up the eastern side of East Anglia during the morning hours - but far from certain. Further bursts of medium level convection may occur at various times through the day, so an ongoing threat of isolated to scattered  thunderstorms seems possible at least close to the coasts of SE England and East Anglia, though most NWP output keeps the vast majority of any developments offshore. A tentative SLGT has been issued to best highlight the areas at greatest risk (though considered fairly low even here). Notably dry mid/upper levels may inhibit deep convection from developing.

Broad upper trough approaching from the Atlantic will introduce steeper lapse rates and a deep convection regime to northwestern areas, particularly later and overnight into Wednesday. Some sporadic lightning and gusty winds will be possible from scattered heavy showers.