Convective Outlook: Fri 01 Sep 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Sep 2017

ISSUED 19:54 UTC Thu 31 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough and associated cold pool / steep lapse rates will clear gradually eastwards to the North Sea on Friday, generating several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE in response to SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Showers / thunderstorms will be ongoing over the English Channel at the beginning of the forecast period, these then generally becoming more widespread through the day across eastern Britain. Lightning activity seems most likely over East Anglia and Kent, but a low-end SLGT might also be required for portions of Yorks/Lincs and the Pennines.


Some localised surface water issues are possible given slow storm motion, with low-level convergence aiding shower development and also bringing the opportunity for a few funnel clouds. Showers inland will fade during the evening hours, but some slow-moving showers / thunderstorms could persist over east Kent for a time into Friday night - some uncertainty naturally, but there could be some minor flooding issues here.