Convective Outlook: Sun 10 Sep 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 10 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 11 Sep 2017

ISSUED 16:14 UTC Sat 09 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

The post-frontal environment on Sunday will be characterised by CAA with steepening lapse rates overspreading northern Britain during the afternoon, expanding more widely overnight as the upper trough stalls and digs a little farther south. Numerous showers are expected, particularly in western exposed parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England, some perhaps weakly-electrified - the broad LOW risk then becoming more widespread farther south overnight.


On the forward side of the upper trough, strong DLS will overlap with rather meagre instability to perhaps allow cells to become a little more-organised - this most likely over Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland / northern England. A low-end SLGT might be required where this overlap of shear and instability is greatest, particularly Northern Ireland into SW Scotland, but confidence is not particularly high on how widespread lightning activity will be given very dry air aloft providing somewhat of a cap in the mid-levels, especially as one comes farther south over the Republic of Ireland, England and Wales. Nonetheless, some gusty winds will be possible with some of the more intense showers and perhaps an isolated tornado - though this limited to a certain extent by the relatively high cloud bases given predicted dewpoint depressions (but these reducing during the evening hours).