Convective Outlook: Tue 12 Sep 2017
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Sep 2017

ISSUED 06:21 UTC Tue 12 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Rapid deepening of a surface low as it drifts from Ireland and across the Irish Sea on Tuesday evening/night, to then be on the northern flank of the jet stream, combined with the dry intrusion should promote some deep convection on the wrap-around tip that crosses the Irish Sea late evening into NW England during the early hours. The location of this activity is subject to an error bar of +/- 80 miles N-S  but could result in some damaging gusts of wind in excess of 80mph locally - perhaps even capable of producing a tornado.


To the NW of this surface low, the approaching upper trough on Tuesday night will allow lapse rates to steepen, with numerous showers likely along western and northern coasts, some perhaps weakly-electrified.