Convective Outlook: Wed 28 Mar 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Mar 2018

ISSUED 20:51 UTC Tue 27 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Behind a frontal wave/low sliding eastwards across southern Britain on Wednesday morning, lapse rates will steepen with the approach of an upper trough from the west. In the wake of earlier rain, several showers are expected to develop during the afternoon, but with rather saturated profiles and skinny CAPE the lightning potential is considered fairly low.


Perhaps a greater chance of lightning will be over the Celtic Sea during the early hours of Thursday as heights fall from the west, cold air aloft then steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE in response to SSTs. Given various forecast parameters, have issued a low-end SLGT for late Wednesday night - though some complications from what seemingly begins as deep convection eventually manifests itself into more of a frontal feature due to increasing baroclinicity by Thursday morning. Confidence is not particularly high for this SLGT, and trends will be monitored to remove it if necessary.