Convective Outlook: Sat 31 Mar 2018 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 31 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Apr 2018
ISSUED 18:57 UTC Fri 30 Mar 2018
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Vertically-stacked low over eastern England will gradually drift southeastwards to BeNeLux by Saturday night. The exact location of the surface low will prove crucial to any deep convection potential - provided it is sufficiently to the west, this may allow some insolation to occur across eastern England, perhaps enough to generate 100-200 J/kg CAPE.
Low-level convergence near the surface low centre may allow a few heavy showers to develop, perhaps capable of producing some isolated lightning - though the risk is considered quite low as this depends on surface temperatures reaching 9-10C which seems unlikely should cloud cover persist. The risk is greatest over East Anglia, but confidence on lightning potential is not high enough for now to issue a SLGT.