Convective Outlook: Wed 02 May 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 02 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 03 May 2018

ISSUED 15:30 UTC Tue 01 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharp upper trough, associated with a tongue of steep mid-level lapse rates, will drift eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday. On the forward side, a cold front/occlusion will gradually clear eastwards to the North Sea, but with some residual low-level moisture (almost a hint of SMZ) lingering for a time across central and southern England. There is potential for some locally heavy showers to develop immediately behind the cold front during the afternoon given some marginal instability and increasing DLS, though perhaps limited in height due to increasingly dry air aloft. Gusty winds would be the main threat with this activity.


Farther north and west, diurnal heating will generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE with numerous showers developing, some perhaps weakly-electrified. Difficult to pinpoint any particular area that may warrant a SLGT, especially since the best DLS will be located ahead of the steepest mid-level lapse rates (in the trough axis), followed by increased subsidence aloft over Ireland as an upper ridge approaches from the Atlantic.