VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 14 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 15 Jun 2018
ISSUED 18:41 UTC Wed 13 Jun 2018
ISSUED BY: Chris
A deep area of low pressure and associated heavy rain and gales will exit Scotland to the east during the morning and middle part of Thursday. Behind that in the post-frontal environment a trough and associated steeping lapse rates will help to generate some heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
CAPE/Instability values will be relative low/shallow therefore lightning is seen as only a small risk. That being stated, these showers will develop in a high speed shear environment so some cell organisation is possible and even with only limited lighting, a small tornado risk exists, particularly across northern parts of Ireland where the bulk sheer is greatest (up to 50kts). Some brief, strong convective gusts will also be possible in and around the more well developed convection. The main threat period will likely be late afternoon and early evening across northern parts of Ireland.