Convective Outlook: Thu 28 Jun 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 28 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 29 Jun 2018

ISSUED 17:52 UTC Wed 27 Jun 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Omega block continues to dominate across the British Isles on Thursday, suppressing any deep convection. However, a small area of 500-900 J/kg CAPE may evolve over eastern Scotland which, provided there is sufficient low-level wind convergence and some orographic uplift, may result in an isolated shower. The window of opportunity is fairly narrow, generally between 15:00 - 18:00 BST, and should any shower / thunderstorm develop it will likely collapse fairly quickly given lack of upper support and very little shear. In fact, it is questionable how deep convection may grow under such conditions.


Usually would tend to ignore such a signal in the GFS and UKV due to their history of being too keen to develop deep convection over mountains under ridged conditions - however, there is some reasonable agreement amongst other model output (ECMWF, CMC, ARPEGE etc). Nonetheless, treating this as a rather low (10%) risk.