Convective Outlook: Thu 19 Jul 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 19 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 20 Jul 2018

ISSUED 05:50 UTC Thu 19 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave trough extends from the British Isles southwards to the west of Iberia, associated with cooler mid-levels. A few isolated showers will be possible today, but generally capped below 700-800mb, and hence lightning is rather unlikely (no threat levels issued). 


Overnight, elevated convection (showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms) will develop over northern France and drift northwards across the English Channel towards SE England. While instability weakens as this activity continues to drift northwards, isolated lightning cannot be ruled out (but will primarily be over the English Channel, if any). A LOW threat level has been issued to highlight this potential.

Elsewhere overnight a new, sharpening upper trough will approach NW Scotland, digging southwards. A frontal system will already be present here, bringing extensive cloud and outbreaks of rain. However, increased forcing and a dry intrusion may promote some mid-level instability release, with the chance of a few isolated lightning strikes during the early hours approaching Friday morning. A broad LOW threat level has been issued - in reality, the vast majority of the area will remain lightning-free