However, by the afternoon strong surface heating with dewpoints of 15-17C should yield 1,300-1,800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence and orographic influence may allow a few scattered thunderstorms to develop over eastern England late afternoon and more especially into the evening hours. North Lincolnshire into Yorkshire is the most favoured area for a couple of isolated evening thunderstorms, drifting to the north, highlighted by the northern portion of the MDT. Forecast profiles exhibit reasonable speed and directional shear, with backed low-level winds, which combined with significant instability suggests the potential for a supercell or two capable of large hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and frequent lightning - as such, a SVR has been introduced. However, dry mid-levels and a warm nose at 700mb may inhibit deep convection somewhat.

Overnight, increased forcing aloft will further destabilise the airmass across portions of England, with an increase in coverage of elevated thunderstorms (cloud bases probably 8,000 - 10,000ft) expected along the plume axis from Cen S England northwards to the east coast of Scotland - hence a rather large SLGT area, with a southwards extension of the MDT to highlight the corridor with best multi-model consensus (though this may need nudging eastwards if guidance trends that way).