Convective Outlook: Thu 02 Aug 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Aug 2018

ISSUED 20:53 UTC Wed 01 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Orographic forcing combined with an upper-level disturbance may allow one or two isolated but locally heavy showers to develop over NE Scotland late Thursday afternoon / early evening, moving NE-wards offshore. Forecast profiles suggest convection may be a little stunted in depth somewhat, so questionable as to how much (if any) lightning activity there will be.


On Thursday night, a mid-level dry intrusion atop very moist low-level air may encourage some mid-level instability release as showery outbreaks of rain develop along a pre-frontal trough, primarily from the Irish Sea across Cumbria / NE England and perhaps S Scotland. Skinny CAPE profiles and somewhat limited depth of convection suggests any lightning activity should be fairly isolated.