Convective Outlook: Sat 11 Aug 2018
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Aug 2018

ISSUED 19:50 UTC Sat 11 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 19:50 UTC SLGT shrunk over Ireland, and extended a little farther east to include Dorset etc, since cold front is a little faster than earlier expectations, and hence overlap with shortwave will occur slightly farther east

UPDATE 10:06 UTC Cold front provides the focus for embedded mid-level instability release as strong upper forcing approaches from the SW, on the forward side of the main upper trough. While instability is fairly weak and profiles rather saturated, forcing may be sufficient to produce some sporadic lightning during Saturday night as the cold front continues to slide NE from the Celtic Sea into SW England and Wales; a low-end SLGT has been introduced to cover this potential

A transient ridge of higher pressure will keep most of Britain dry through Saturday, however a warm front and following warm sector will overspread Ireland and southwestern parts of Britain by Saturday evening and overnight. Rain and the potential of some embedded elevated convection will bring a low end risk of a few lightning strikes as the cold front moves in during the early morning hours of Sunday.  At this stage the risk of lightning seems to be only around 10%.