Convective Outlook: Tue 04 Sep 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 04 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 05 Sep 2018

ISSUED 17:05 UTC Tue 04 Sep 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtle forcing aloft will drift from central England to the North Sea during Tuesday night, engaging a tongue of warm, moist low-level air advecting slowly from the Low Countries to the southern North Sea. The overlap of these features will be crucial in determining areas likely to experience destabilisation, generally from around the 850-900mb layer - models are handling the position of potential convective elements slightly differently.


Nonetheless, it seems plausible an increase of showery precipitation will occur tonight over the southern North Sea, which may also affect parts of East Anglia and Kent, especially areas close to the coast. Instability is marginal, hence lightning activity may be rather limited - and much more likely to occur on the other side of the North Sea closer to the Netherlands, especially after midnight.