Convective Outlook: Thu 06 Sep 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 06 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 07 Sep 2018

ISSUED 20:00 UTC Wed 05 Sep 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Two areas of interest exist during this forecast period on Thursday. The main risk of lightning will come courtesy of a cut-off upper low drifting southeastwards across Scotland, the associated cold pool atop warm SSTs generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. A few isolated / sporadic lightning strikes will be possible with scattered showers over Scotland and northern England, though perhaps moreso over the North Sea by Thursday night.


Farther south, a weak cold front will be drifting southeastwards across England and Wales, but may be engaged by a jet streak rounding the western and southern flank of the upper low. There could be an increase in showery precipitation on Thursday evening over the Home Counties and East Anglia depending on the phasing of the front and upper support, though even so lightning remains questionable.