Convective Outlook: Wed 19 Sep 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 19 Sep 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 20 Sep 2018

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Tue 18 Sep 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A deep area of low pressure will track northeastwards from the Atlantic across NW Scotland on Wednesday, with very strong winds on its southern flank. Cold air wrapping around the rear side atop warm SSTs will steepen lapse rates and generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE. This, within a strongly-sheared environment, suggests some sporadic lightning will be possible as numerous showers move through the area. Strong gusts of wind will be possible with the most intense cores.


Farther south, strong unidirectional shear (and limited convective depth) will lead to line segments along the cold front, but the lightning risk is considered very low.