Convective Outlook: Fri 26 Oct 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Oct 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Oct 2018

ISSUED 19:49 UTC Thu 25 Oct 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Arctic airmass continues to sink across all parts of the British Isles during this forecast period, as a cold front clears to the near Continent. Such cold air atop warm SSTs will result in markedly steep lapse rates, and several hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will develop over seas and affect adjacent land areas exposed to the northwesterly-turn-northerly wind, several producing small hail and sporadic lightning.

Difficult to pinpoint specific areas with a higher risk of lightning, except for acknowledging the risk will be greatest near coasts and over open water. Deeper instability will evolve over the North Sea during the early hours of Saturday, which may suggest lightning could become a little more widespread here (and hence North Sea coastal counties) - perhaps enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT should confidence improve.