Convective Outlook: Tue 20 Nov 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Nov 2018

ISSUED 10:24 UTC Tue 20 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool atop relatively warm SSTs will generate marginal instability, with widespread showers expected, but limited somewhat in depth. Low-level convergence will be the primary driver in aiding forced ascent, and hence convergence zones will generally be the main areas of interest for any isolated lightning activity. Particular focus is given to the Irish Sea feeding into E Ireland throughout Tuesday and Tuesday night, and also the English Channel - especially this evening and tonight, pushing into southern coastal counties. East Devon into Dorset may be of particular interest late in the night, with showers training over similar areas, perhaps producing some localised flooding (including hail).