Convective Outlook: Wed 28 Nov 2018
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Nov 2018

ISSUED 10:20 UTC Wed 28 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Shallow moist zone and strong shear will encourage some line convection to develop across parts of England and Wales during Wednesday afternoon and evening - but in general such convection will be too shallow for lightning activity, hence no threat areas introduced.

Deeper convection (heavy showers) will push into W / SW Ireland during the early hours of Thursday, perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes given marginal instability and strong shear. Elsewhere, marginal instability in an environment with strong shear and upper forcing may allow some elements of embedded elevated convection to occur over the Celtic Sea / SW England during the early hours of Thursday, associated with the next frontal system arriving from the Atlantic.