Convective Outlook: Thu 20 Dec 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Dec 2018

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Wed 19 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low will linger close to NW Britain through Thursday, with cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are expected to develop over open seas, then transferring inland by steering winds and sometimes well-inland as organised trough features move through in the westerly flow. A few isolated lightning strikes and small hail will be possible. Heights will rise across the Republic of Ireland and southern Britain during the day, reducing instability and convective depth (and hence decreasing lightning potential).