Convective Outlook: Fri 28 Dec 2018

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Dec 2018

ISSUED 10:10 UTC Fri 28 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

During Friday night, a new Atlantic frontal system will move across Scotland and Northern Ireland, linked to a surface low that will pass close to the Outer Hebrides towards the end of the night. There may be a window of opportunity during the early hours of Saturday when a sharpening upper trough over-runs the post-frontal environment for some deeper convection. Relatively warm, moist low-level airmass (indicative of a shallow moist zone) beneath notably dry mid/upper levels may be subject to forced ascent. While instability is not particularly impressive, when combined with stronger upper forcing and substantial wind shear there may be enough support for a few lightning strikes late in the night and first thing on Saturday.