Convective Outlook: Wed 16 Jan 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Jan 2019
ISSUED 20:24 UTC Tue 15 Jan 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will slide southeastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday. On the forward side, a cold front will move across England and Wales under the influence of a strongly sheared environment. As such, some elements of line convection seem likely, which may produce some bursts of squally rain and gusty winds.
Behind the cold front, numerous wintry showers will develop as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Several troughs / occlusions embedded in the northwesterly flow will enhance the shower risk, providing some more organised bands of showers at times. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, primarily over open seas and near adjacent coasts.