Convective Outlook: Sat 26 Jan 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 Jan 2019

ISSUED 20:29 UTC Fri 25 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will move eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, accompanied by a frontal system. The warm sector will be characterised by a shallow warm, moist layer and marked dry intrusion aloft. The cold front may exhibit elements of line convection, given strong shear and slight wind veer along the front - capable of producing brief bursts of heavy rain and squally winds. However, weak instability and saturated profiles suggests any lightning activity is rather unlikely.


The post-frontal environment carries the greatest potential for deep convection, as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are expected to develop between the cold front and wrap-around occlusion, initially across Ireland during the afternoon and then spreading farther east over England and Wales during the evening and night. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible. Then later in the night, deep convection will return to N + W Scotland behind the occlusion, as cold Arctic air spreads southwards.