Convective Outlook: Wed 13 Mar 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 13 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 14 Mar 2019

ISSUED 21:03 UTC Tue 12 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The departing upper trough on Wednesday will be close enough to the British Isles to help generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. While instability will be weakening throughout the day, and convective depth reducing, strong shear on the rear side of the upper trough may be enough to compensate for a few isolated lightning strikes from the most intense showers.


Later in the day the next Atlantic frontal system will quickly slide southeastwards, followed by deeper convection / showers into western Scotland during the early hours of Thursday - and so there will be a (low) risk of lightning during the latter half of Wednesday night associated with this activity.