Convective Outlook: Wed 13 Mar 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 13 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 14 Mar 2019
ISSUED 21:03 UTC Tue 12 Mar 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
The departing upper trough on Wednesday will be close enough to the British Isles to help generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. While instability will be weakening throughout the day, and convective depth reducing, strong shear on the rear side of the upper trough may be enough to compensate for a few isolated lightning strikes from the most intense showers.
Later in the day the next Atlantic frontal system will quickly slide southeastwards, followed by deeper convection / showers into western Scotland during the early hours of Thursday - and so there will be a (low) risk of lightning during the latter half of Wednesday night associated with this activity.