Convective Outlook: Fri 22 Mar 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 22 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 23 Mar 2019
ISSUED 20:33 UTC Thu 21 Mar 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
A cold front will slide southeastwards across Ireland and Scotland on Friday, weakening significantly by the time it reaches Wales and northern England during the afternoon. However, a for a time some elements of line convection seem likely given a narrow tongue of warm, moist low-level air within a strongly-sheared environment and marked wind veer as the front moves through - this perhaps most notable in Ireland.
The post-frontal environment will then be characterised by steepening mid-level lapse rates as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs, generating a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect north and west Scotland, with a few isolated lightning strikes possible along with small hail.