Convective Outlook: Wed 03 Apr 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 03 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 04 Apr 2019

ISSUED 21:07 UTC Tue 02 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

The broad upper pattern sees an upper low centred over England on Wednesday, notably cold mid/upper levels creating an environment with very steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE in response to surface heating / SSTs. However, the surface pattern is very complex involving a low centre over the North Sea initially to the east of Scotland which will swing across southern Scotland, down the Irish Sea and into SW England by Thursday morning. Around this low a wrap-around occlusion will bring periods of dynamic rain, with the best convective potential away from these areas.


As such different parts of the British Isles will have different windows of deep convection potential during this forecast period. But in general, lightning activity is unlikely to be significant/widespread enough to warrant an upgrade to SLGT. The best instability will be found in S / SE / E England, while the best sheared environment will be across Ireland, and hence a lack of overlap to increase lightning potential. Nonetheless, numerous showers are expected, capable of producing a few lightning strikes and plenty of small hail. Slack surface pattern over S + E England may allow a few funnel clouds to form.