Convective Outlook: Fri 26 Apr 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 Apr 2019

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Thu 25 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deepening area of low pressure will spread across Ireland and into western Britain during Friday afternoon and evening. This will bring with it an area of unsettled weather, including heavy showers, and more especially some strong winds/gales across southern parts of Ireland and southwestern parts of Britain. 


Before the low moves into Britain, a trough will move eastwards across central and eastern areas during the early afternoon, and help to generate up to 200 J/kg of CAPE producing a marginally unstable environment. Scattered heavy showers will develop and while lightning is not expected to be widespread, it cannot be ruled out. This risk likely lasts from around 12z to 18z before diminishing as the low pressure to the west moves nearer.

As the low crosses Ireland and into western Britain later on Friday and into Friday night, some cold upper level temperatures and strong shear (both low level and deep layer) will also generate heavy showers, perhaps in line-segments. Strong convective gusts are possible, and perhaps the main risk with this event, however again, lightning cannot be ruled out.  Given the strongly sheared environment, the very small risk of a tornado will be present, mainly into SW England during the late evening/early morning hours.