Convective Outlook: Sat 27 Apr 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 Apr 2019

ISSUED 19:26 UTC Fri 26 Apr 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A deep area of low pressure will continue to move eastwards across northern England and eventually into the North Sea later in the day. Strong gusts associated with the low will continue across Ireland, England and Wales, through the day before easing in the evening. 


There are two areas of interest with regards to convection and lightning risk. 

S Scot, NE/E Eng:  Weak instability (up to 200 J/kg) generated by a little surface insolation along with a zone of surface convergence will help to generate some heavier showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during Saturday afternoon. Initiation should be around 11z across S Scotland and N England, with the risk area diminishing and transferring southeastwards later in the afternoon and into the early evening

S Ireland, S Wales, SW/S Eng: South of the low, sunny spells and surface insolation in a strongly sheared environment will allow for some sharp showers to develop. Lightning is deemed to be less likely in this zone, but cannot be ruled out, mainly during the morning and through early afternoon.