Convective Outlook: Thu 02 May 2019 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 May 2019
ISSUED 18:35 UTC Wed 01 May 2019
br> br>ISSUED BY: Chris
Much of the British Isles will be in a northwesterly flow through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure to the southwest begins to be pushed away and cold front spreads southwards across Scotland during the day.
Pre-frontal troughs and weak surface convergence will be the focal point for heavy showers that will develop in conjunction with day-time heating across much of central and southern Britain. CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg will develop by early afternoon with modest mid-level laps rate, however profiles are quite moist, and there is virtually no shear, so while heavy showers are likely, lightning potential is seen as a low-risk.