Convective Outlook: Thu 02 May 2019
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 May 2019

ISSUED 18:35 UTC Wed 01 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

Much of the British Isles will be in a northwesterly flow through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure to the southwest begins to be pushed away and cold front spreads southwards across Scotland during the day. 


Pre-frontal troughs and weak surface convergence will be the focal point for heavy showers that will develop in conjunction with day-time heating across much of central and southern Britain. CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg will develop by early afternoon with modest mid-level laps rate, however profiles are quite moist, and there is virtually no shear, so while heavy showers are likely, lightning potential is seen as a low-risk.